Decomposing the market,industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability

Academics and practitioners frequently highlight that overall market and industry performance is an important aspect of a firm’s profitability. However, few studies allow for the decomposition of a firm’s profitability into market, industry, and idiosyncratic components, and those that do often assume that the market and industry components are cross-sectional constants. In this study, we allow for variation in firm-specific sensitivities to market, industry, and idiosyncratic economic shocks, and then assess whether and when this decomposition results in improved forecasts of profitability. For the overall sample, we find significant improvements in terms of the magnitude of forecast errors and the frequency with which forecasts based on the decomposed values are superior versus forecasts using only total profitability. Across the sample as a whole, decomposing profitability in the forecasting process results in more accurate forecasts greater than two-thirds of the time (increasing to almost 80% within certain subsamples). Our results provide strong support for the role that firm-specific measures of market and industry profitability play in predicting a firm’s future performance, as well as highlighting settings where the decomposition provides the greatest benefit in terms of predicting future changes in profitability.     

Disaggregating operating and financial activities: implications for forecasts of profitability

Researchers, practitioners, and standard setters emphasize the importance of disaggregating financial statements into operating and financial activities. However, there is a lack of research demonstrating that this disaggregation improves forecasts of profitability. In this study, we consider whether and when the operating/financial disaggregation improves forecasts of profitability. Contrary to the use of an aggregate forecasting approach by most related prior research, we first show that the operating/financial disaggregation only provides forecast improvement over a benchmark model incorporating aggregate information when the components forecasting approach is used. We also compare the operating/financial disaggregation to the unusual/infrequent disaggregation required by US GAAP. We find that the operating/financial disaggregation yields less accurate forecasts than the unusual/infrequent disaggregation. However, when using the components forecasting approach, we find that the combination of both disaggregations improves forecasts of profitability. Finally, we document that the incremental usefulness of the operating/financial disaggregation relative to a benchmark model incorporating aggregate information is a function of growth and accounting conservatism. Overall, our study provides timely evidence concerning how analysts and investors might best use the operating/financial disaggregation for forecasting profitability.     

Technology and teleology: Social engineering

Social engineering is concerned with the purposes to which technologies are put. There is a need for methods of assessing teleology. Such assessment is necessary both before the introduction of new technologies, and as an ongoing process during their existence. Society has always been engineered, but in a democratic society the engineering ought to be explicit.     

Nurses leading the response to the crisis of palliative care for vulnerable populations

All nurses are prepared to be generalists in palliative care. Within the discipline there are nurses who seek advanced educational preparation and develop clinical expertise in palliative care nursing. These are our leaders in palliative care nursing who can exert influence in all health care settings to support nurses providing palliative care. It is nurses and advanced practice nurses in partnership who are capable of developing and advocating for palliative care across settings. The focus of care is the person, not the diagnosis or the setting. The viewpoint that "all nursing care is palliative care" can transform health care with nurses taking the lead.     

“Just a Little Respect”: Effects of a Layoff Agent’s Actions on Employees’ Reactions to a Dismissal Notification Meeting

For several decades, most discussion on financial fraud has centered on the fraud triangle, which has evolved over time through various extensions and re-interpretations. While this has served the profession well, the articulation of the human side of the act is indirect and diffused. To address this limitation, this research develops a model to explain the role of human desires, intentions, and actions in indulgence of, or resistance to, the act of financial fraud. Evidence from religion, philosophy, sociology, neurology, behavioral economics, and social psychology is integrated to develop and support an alternative fraud model, called the disposition-based fraud model (DFM). To articulate the model, its two primary components, disposition and temptation, are further developed and extended. Although the DFM is generally applicable to any act of fraud, this paper focuses on executive fraud. The similarities and differences between the DFM and extant fraud models are discussed. Importantly, in light of the DFM, a re-interpretation of the fraud triangle is made to improve our understanding of the human element in it. Additionally, potential implications of the model for corporate governance are discussed, suggestions for further research are offered, and the DFM’s strengths and limitations are noted.     

Discussion of “The Effect of Information on Uncertainty and the Cost of Capital”

Johnstone (2016) provides a theoretical analysis of how information might increase uncertainty and a firm's cost of equity capital (COEC). The author's analysis serves to highlight outcomes that he suggests receive limited attention in prior studies. He focuses on how more information might result in greater, rather than less, uncertainty and whether a decrease in uncertainty leads to a lower COEC. I discuss how his study provides an incremental contribution to the theoretical literature and ways in which future work in this area might provide a richer framework for empirical studies.     

Trickle Effects of Cross-Sector Social Partnerships

Cross-sector social partnerships are often studied from a macro and meso perspective, also in an attempt to assess effectiveness and societal impact. This article pays specific attention to the micro perspective, i.e. individual interactions between and within organizations related to partnerships that address the ‘social good’. By focusing on the potential effects and mechanisms at the level of individuals and the organization(s) with which they interact, it aims to help fill a gap in research on partnerships, including more insight into the process of interaction. We conceptually explore micro level interactions, and how partnership effects may ‘trickle down’ (e.g. from management to employees), or ‘trickle up’ (from employees to management) or ‘trickle round’ (e.g. between employees). Based on the literature from various disciplines, we discuss how more generic theories on social exchange and contagion, social learning and attraction-selection-attrition can help shed light on micro level interactions in a partnership, considering in particular transmission mechanisms via employees, top and middle management, and customers. In this way, partnerships can have wider benefits, as individuals have multiple roles and effects at the micro level can spread to the meso and macro levels as well. Implications for research and practice are outlined.     

Value Frame Fusion in Cross Sector Interactions

Prior research flags the inherent incompatibilities between for-profit and nonprofit partners and cautions that clashing value creation logics and conflicting identities can stall social innovation in cross sector partnerships. Process narratives of successful versus unsuccessful cross sector partnerships paint a more optimistic picture, whereby the frequency, intensity, breadth, and depth of interactions may afford frame alignment despite partners’ divergent value creation approaches. However, little is known about how cross sector partners come to recognize and reconcile their divergent value creation frames in order to co-construct social value. Using longitudinal narratives of four dyads, we show that partners initially contrast their sector-embedded diagnostic frames and then work together to deliberately develop partnership-specific prognostic frames. We extend the literature on framing by developing a four-stage grounded model of frame negotiation, elasticity, plasticity, and fusion which unpacks the relational process of value creation in cross sector partnerships. Our qualitative analyses further show how partners orchestrate multilevel coordination that helps scaffold and calibrate this relational process of frame fusion.     

Poor Women Survey Poor Women: Feminist Perspectives in Survey Research

This essay examines how applying feminist principles in scientific inquiry changes both the process and the results of research. Overall, I find that including feminist perspectives improves research. Involving a women's community in the research process and allowing poor women to interview poor women may reduce interviewer bias, improve response rates and facilitate trust in answering questions that are often quite sensitive. Including poor women in the interviewing process also enables these women to learn about scientific inquiry and to participate in the research process.